E Source is pleased to announce the launch of E Source EV4Sight, a consortium to continuously forecast the utility-specific impacts of electric transportation growth. Using E Source’s growing data hub and advanced data science, EV4Sight will provide consortium members with ongoing insights into electric vehicle (EV) charging patterns; analysis of factors that influence charging behavior; and impacts of load growth at the national, state, service-territory, or distribution-feeder level. EV4Sight will address consumer vehicles as well as key categories of commercial and fleet vehicles.
EVs promise to be the primary engine for electricity growth in the coming decades as well as the pathway to a low-carbon future. Load-growth forecasts have been based on widely varying estimates, often extrapolating from local policy goals instead of building on relevant local data—until now.
“Utilities are facing considerable risk exposure if they either under- or overbuild in anticipation of electric vehicle demand, and regulators and policymakers want hard data to support investments. We also know that electric load growth will be very uneven, with some regions and even neighborhoods, having vastly different trajectories of adoption,” says Bill LeBlanc, E Source’s chief instigation agent.
EV4Sight consortium members will have access to continuously updated dashboards powered by forecasting models rooted in advanced data science techniques. The data includes charging load shapes, EV owner data records, and proprietary market insights on every household and business in the US. E Source, through its partner Rolling Energy Resources, will enroll 100 consumer vehicles in each consortium members service territory to collect detailed real-time information on charging location and speed of charge, miles traveled, and state of battery charge. E Source also encourages members to add their own data—such as charging load shapes or smart meter data, rate designs, and customer program participation—to develop granular and accurate load forecasts. As the EV markets rapidly evolve, so will the projections.
“Today, we just don’t know what the real influences and levers are of EV adoption. Similarly, we aren’t aware of what affects charging habits the most.” explains Ted Schultz, president of E Source Data Science. “For consumer EV adoption, is it gas prices, number of public charging stations, model availability, EV range, or something that is hidden from us? For commercial vehicles, is rate design, range, managed charging, vehicle cost, or other factors the biggest influencers? That’s where data science will provide consortium members the tools they need on an ongoing basis to help manage the grid of the future.”
With dozens of utilities all pooling their data, along with proprietary E Source datasets, EV4Sight’s advanced data science capabilities will enable E Source and its members to discern which utility programs, rate designs, policies, and activities work best with various target groups of customers under varying driving conditions.
“E Source’s long-standing role of bringing together utilities to solve big problems will allow each EV4Sight consortium member to learn from all the other utilities’ programs and approaches and EV data without having to conduct those experiments themselves,” explains LeBlanc. “We’re just at the beginning of this EV growth curve, which means markets will be shifting dramatically over the coming decade, necessitating real-time analysis of this complex addition to our electric grid.”
About E Source
E Source is a leading partner to more than 500 electric, gas, and water utilities and municipalities, and their partners, across the US and Canada. We provide data science, market research, benchmarking, and consulting services. Our 35 years of technology validation, market assessment, program design, and customer experience expertise helps clients make informed, data-driven decisions; plan for tomorrow’s infrastructure needs; strengthen customer relationships; and meet critical business objectives while becoming more innovative and responsive in the rapidly evolving market.